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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.